Entertaining hypothesis vs Belief

Saw a study on "education reduces belief in conspiracy theories." The trouble with the study is that like many recent studies it was an exercise in confirmation bias. It is like doing a study announcing "education reduces ignorance on the subject studied." Well "duh", isn't that what it is supposed to do? 

That they have to present it as statistics speaks to flaws in our education system. Besides I don't see much anaecdotal evidence that smart people are less susceptible to the rabbit warrens of conspiracy theories and paranoia. There are "beautiful minds" everywhere. And drugs are no help when rumors abound presenting alternative narratives about life. The logic always comes with purported evidence and emotional triggers.

What helps with conspiracy theories is scientific method. The problem is not with entertaining the notions. For example, the premise that hacked autopilots were used to attack the targets of 911, is after all a premise based on a few facts. The planes did have autopilots. It was a plausible hypothesis. 

What leads one to reject that hypothesis is a preponderance of evidence.  But you have to verify and validate facts to get there. If you start rejecting facts as facts because you are attached to your first hypothesis that is the rabbit hole. Educated people fall down it too.

There are alternative explanations for facts. Those are called hypothesii. There are facts that are a priori and facts that are testable.  A testable fact can be falsified or verified.  The material world is best governed by testable facts. 

 

For example,  A commandment like "thou shalt not kill" can be an a priori statement of principle. But the margins require verification. Does the passage prohibit all killing all the time? Or does it refer solely to murdering fellow humans. When is killing permissable? When is it immoral and how much?. Is killing an annoying fly as big a sin as killing a chicken for dinner? Is killing a chicken for dinner the same as killing Uncle Joe? 

We learn [usually have to teach ourselves] Law and logic as a tool to try to establish nuance on life. The better educated one is, the more one understands the nuances.

 One is going to go down rabbit holes of conflicting stories. One is going to have to evaluate competing narratives. The trap is our emotions will tell us to reject some facts, either for the sake of the argument or because accepting them hurts. Not a good idea. Truth hurts the way a minor injury does. Lies feel good til the poison hits, or ones fall reaches bottom. Then the pain can be so bad, one goes numb to it. People die, fanatics, clinging to falsified beliefs that way.

 

Tended vs Untended

Years ago, before internet, I remember reading the article that described what came to be known as "broken glass theory." I went back to that subject in 2014. 

Tended vs untended behavior

The Atlantic article had been about tended, versus untended behavior. It had argued for the necessity of tending neighborhoods and the consequences of untended behavior. The article recommended replacing broken glass and improving neighborhoods.

ZERO TOLERANCE = Racism

Unfortunately Rudy Giuliani and others, interpreted "broken glass theory" to mean the proposition that unless you arrest people breaking windows and lock them up a long time, they commit worse crimes. It led to zero tolerance, 3 strikes and other laws that punished minor crimes. These policies targetted low status neighborhoods. People were arrested and murdered by police for selling cigarettes,  one at a time. But no windows were fixed.

Tended behavior as antidote

Anyone who has raised children, been in a loving relation or grown a garden, knows that creating happiness takes work. A garden has to be tended. It has to be worked, sewn, weeded, trimmed, taken care of.  Same with children and relationship. An untended garden quickly gets overgrown with weeds and the crops infected.

The analogy is so powerful its one of the first allegories in the bible. Tending others, neighborhoods, laws, whole countries, gives joy. Untended people kill their brother and carry around the mark of Cain.

My Sermon for the day.....

More on this

http://holtesthoughts.blogspot.com/2014/11/why-broken-windows-theory-was-corrupted.html

http://holtesthoughts.blogspot.com/2014/11/the-neighborhood-and-city-village-and.html

cruelty is not strong

Marco Rubio you are wrong.

For the authoritarian:

“Cruelty is strength”

“Truth is what the cruel fabricate.”

But calling a lie truth doesn't make the lie true.

Cruelty fails, leaving behind only rue.

 

Cruelty begets cruelty,

An eye for an eye, and all are blind.

They may claim it for legal,

...but all it is is crime.

And in the end all the cruel have left is hate.

 

Castro, Pinochet, Duvalier,

Hate looks strong,

Strongly wrong is an offkey song.

Dictators puff themselves up with their own fear.

They frighten allies more than enemies.

 

Look at the expression on the brutes they send.

Their only joy is violence,

they quail in fear.

They stand jaw set squarely,

to hide a cowardly racing heart.

 

But like all puffed up things

A single truth pricks.

A single tear wilts their con

And the weak pretending to be strong,

Deflate

Conservatives, Edmund Burke & despite of workers.

Edmund Burke:

Posted several blog entries on Edmund Burke and his revolt against John Locke. Ostensibly he wrote "Reflections on the Revolution" responding to the De-evolution of the French Revolution into the terror. But in truth he rebelled at the notion that "hair dressers and tallow-chandlers" should participate in government. To him it was visceral. He found common folks revolting 🤢 🤮 🤮.

He's the spiritual founder of the conservative movement.  That despite for barbers, butchers, bakers [add in electricians], continues. It also doesn't sell very well. Hence "conservatives" always turn to alliance with bigots, warmongering, white nationalism, etc.... trying to con the rest of us into keeping them in power & wealth.

When the white nationalists take over, conservatives pearl clutch. But the root of the problem is that conservatism & mostvconservatives mostly want to conserve power and influence, and really loathe being held to account by the rest of us. Principles are are for day laborers & butchers.

Chris Holte.

Incompetence as a terror weapon

Totalitarianism uses fear to control populations

When I looked at Donald Trump back in the Eighties, I saw a psychotic, narcissistic, criminal, ruthless and dishonest person. I never expected he'd lead a totalitarian movement.

I thought  "Totalitarian? That's crazy! Trump is an incompetent boob, not a terrorist!"

But then I thought, stupidity, ruthlessness and brutality go together. Stupid behaviors are frightening because they are mostly arbitrary and when they are all too predictable they are predictable in their violence, harm and the suffering they inflict.

So Stupidity and dictatorship go together like a horse and carriage.

Authoritarianism & Totalitarianism are also pathocracy

Totalitarian methods are not the policy of diabolical braniacs but of brutal, clever, but incompetent leaders trying to maintain an image and keep power in the face of the evident fraud of pathological ideologies and impractical lives.

Yes, Trump is authoritarian.  If he succeeds he'll fail, he'll break our country.

Just some thoughts. Stupidity is terrorism.

Andrew Lobaczewski and Pathocracy 

Andrew Lobaczewski developed the concept of "pathocracy"  based on experiences suffering Nazi & Soviet occupation in his birth home of Poland. Pathocracy is when:

"individuals with personality disorders 

(particularly psychopathy) occupy positions of power."

Trump exemplifies pathocracy but everything about him also follows Hannah Arendt's warnings in Origins of Totalitarianism.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/out-the-darkness/201907/pathocracy

Subverting Reform In 1893!!

I frequently talk about monopolies Utilities and the distinction between marketable goods and services and things that should never be privateered.  This article by Rick Dimare explains how Henry Georges evolving understanding of privilege and economic rent went. But also shows how The Georgist movement was infiltrated and subverted.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/CommonWealthTax/permalink/1631768350269635/

Dogged Determination in the face of Totalitarianism

In 2016, I saw the reality we were up against authoritarianism and totalitarian tactics. But I didn't want to even concede it might prevail. So I focused my energy on fact checking, fighting trolls. I even made phone calls.  On election day I worked as a poll worker, despite knowing my town, Brunswick would likely go to Trump. Maryland went to Hillary and the benefit of helping everyone else vote, was I was too tired to watch TV all night. I went to sleep relieved. Woke up alarmed and depressed. Don't want that to happen this year.

TRUMPISM AS A TOTALITARIAN MOVEMENT

The thing is, Trumpism is a totalitarian movement that seeks total control of humans, often globally. Totalitarianism seeks total domination.  It is a movement that uses terrorism to control whole populations, starting with a mob and then applying terror to paralyze and inflame followers and enemies alike. One can argue that Trump runs a totalitarian movement. 

He certainly is succeeding in terrorizing his enemies. But he also terrorizes his friends. He uses fear of "the other" to mobilize fearful followers and inflame their racism. He is replacing a professionalized military with a militarized police. And he is using legitimate and illegitimate means to grab for totalitarian power.

And he was open about intentions in 2015.

TOTALITARIANISM IS ALIVE

The trouble with both fascism and communisim was they were totalitarian. China and Russia dumped their claimed ideologies, but have kept their use of terrorism as a means of control. In other formerly totalitarianism countries the former totalitarian governments receded into movements, political parties and mafias. Usually some went to jail. 

Often the fearless leader dies and becomes a totem for popular movements. In some cases, when the movement was less ideological than fan based, the movement splits between left and right. That happened to Peronism. 

Arendt saw totalitarianism as a novel form of government, but seeking total control is the goal of most utopian movements and nearly all tyrants.  Perhaps such movements are a spectrum of terror enabled by mass media. In any case fear is dangerous, because as Frank Herbert put it, it's the mind killer.  The antidote is awakening the brain.

Trump is a dark, totalitarian wannabe. He's explicitly oriented to Vladimir, and owned by, Putin. The Senate Intel committee released vol 5 of its intel report yesterday, confirming that Konstantin Kilimnik is a Russian operative, his former employee Manafort, also, and Trump a Russian asset. What is going on in Belarus shows we need to march and vote.

Sources and further reading

https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/press/senate-intel-releases-volume-5-bipartisan-russia-report