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Saturday, January 31, 2015

When it all Falls apart

It is true that correlation does not equal causation. But usually correlation helps prove causation when people are looking for the cause of something. Thus ancients would see a major tragedy after an eclipse and assume that the eclipse caused the tragedy. The term for that is when an event is a "harbinger" and our brains are wired to detect such correlations, even when they aren't there.

Thus we're programmed to see causation where there is none. It's for that reason that policies that actually mess over the economy are looked back at as successes, while the mess those policies caused is blamed on the policies actually intended to rectify it.

That is why when we have hierarchy in society and "heroes" we often look at them nostalgically after they die. This is why Leaders like Nicolae_Ceaușescu or Josip Broz Tito, Mussolini, Franco, and others, who in fact repressed their countries are often adored and seen more as heros years after they die than while they are alive. While alive the trains seemed to run on time, there was stability and everything seemed fine for the insiders and those in the middle or the top of the Pecking Order.

It's after they die that the fun starts

When it all breaks up, all the buried hatreds flare up. The Lieutenants who behaved themselves out of fear of the fearless leader, all want to eat for dinner the former leader. Reforms are tried, and come up against resource shortages due to looting or misuse. Money is gone. The country is saddled with debt, inflation (or deflation) bureaucracy, corruption, and all sorts of buried troubles that suddenly re-appear.

Hence the chart shows the feathers flying and lots of chicken dinners.

This post is meant to focus on one point from:

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