Trump gave a policy speech last night. He sounded so incoherent I fell asleep. Before he gave it I figured he might try something old as new (see: "Will Trump Create an American East India Company"). As bad as that idea was and yes the Robert Clive idea may be completely mercenary and privateering (and therefore so Trump) but at least it would have shown some imagination. He went Nixon instead. Incoherent and tricky.
He made three points that, like his Watergate-like corrupt politics remind me of 1969. His speech was pure Nixon:
Tricky Dicky Parallels
- an honorable and enduring...victory.
- A rapid pull out would be unacceptable.
- He wants to widen the war to Pakistan
He went full flaccid spineless and full Tricky Dick instead.
Oh yes, I know. He blames Obama for pulling out of Iraq too fast. But as Colin Powell warned, we broke Iraq and staying there was costing us thousands of deaths a year. Obama chose to pull out gradually as Bush had asked for. Bush should never have conducted a fraudulent war in Iraq in the first place. And it was Bush who got us into both Afghanistan and Iraq. Obama came to the same information as Trump just did, except he was willing to take the flack and pull out of Iraq anyway. If anyone showed moral courage it was Obama. Though staying in either country showed that he was afraid of being seen as afraid too. Spineless politicians act brave to avoid being seen as spineless. When it comes to preserving their career, it is rare that politicians have any spine.
Creating Permanent War as a Path to Riches
After I wrote my post yesterday someone reminded me that we've pretty much already Privatized Afghanistan. And the presence of the legacies of the East India Company take the form of Exxon, BP and other Oil Companies, most of which already work together like pirates and seem to have their own foreign policy -- often at Odds with that of the United States. So he doesn't need Erik Prince, he already has Rex Tillerson. But we have no State Department. And he just picked a war with Pakistan. He seems to be going along with the military. But he's giving the US Military 6 months. I have several friends who believe that he's still angling for Privatizing the running of our foreign policy. Private Armies don't have to pay attention to the US Military Code, Geneva Convention and when they break the law they sometimes get legal protection from the USA government as happened in Iraq with Blackwater. Erik Prince knows this history, and is hoping to get as stinking rich from privateering as Robert Clive did. He'd make less money if the country were stable. Privateers live on permanent war. Meanwhile mercenaries, and US soldiers, will die. I suspect a lot of Righties plan on this.
Paying the Child Support
Our Middle East mess is fate's child support from our rape of those countries during the Bush Administration. Simply pulling out would seem spineless whether it is or not. Staying will continue to cost us billions. So... Bannon has a point in that:
“That’s it – not the nation-building strategy still being pursued at very high cost by the Pentagon.” [Breitbart]
We Broke it We either Help Fix it or it stays broke
Except we aren't charged with nation building, but repairing bomb craters and fixing things that the West has helped break. Taliban is a reaction to Saudi Outreach and years of Western invasions and war in what is now Afghanistan and Pakistan. Indeed much of the mess there was instigated by East India Company agents and efforts to colonize the area for private profits. So, he wants eternal war.
"Someday, after an effective military effort, perhaps it will be possible to have a political settlement that includes elements of the Taliban in Afghanistan, but nobody knows if or when that will ever happen. America will continue its support for the Afghan government and the Afghan military as they confront the Taliban in the field."
No "Nation Building" = No win
Yet Trump knows that defeating the Taliban is easier said than done. And that our military force, without any attempt to "nation build" is simply wasting time.
"Ultimately, it is up to the people of Afghanistan to take ownership of their future, to govern their society, and to achieve an everlasting peace. We are a partner and a friend, but we will not dictate to the Afghan people how to live, or how to govern their own complex society. We are not nation-building again. We are killing terrorists."
And he admits this strategy has no ability to bring peace:
"Military power alone will not bring peace to Afghanistan or stop the terrorist threat arising in that country. But strategically applied force aims to create the conditions for a political process to achieve a lasting peace."
Trump is talking about looting Afghanistan, about keeping his plan "secret", etc... which is very Nixonian. The Ghost of Robert Clive is still very active. With no intention to "nation build" he isn't even planning to "bring peace" to Afghanistan. Just to loot it and maybe instigate a wider war.
We've already Lost
Counter insurgency doctrine dictates that we stand up local government alternatives to the insurgents. Without "nation building" as soon as we pull out the whole thing falls and the "enemy" acquires whatever material we left behind. Following Trump's policy means we've already lost Afghanistan. Of course, we never had it, so for those whose goal is looting it, Who Cares?
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