Thursday, March 19, 2015

Bibi Comes Out of the Closet

Bibi came out of the closet as an extreme chauvinist nationalist the other day. In a way it settles things. The pretense is gone that Israel is committed to a "Two State Solution." This means that Israel as it is known now is fated to be gone, one way or another. But in the short time it's great for Bibi's political career. He no longer needs to pretend to be dealing with Arab leaders in the West Bank. And now they can join forces with Hamas and launch even more rockets! Win/win for the arms manufacturers who fund both sides!

I admit I was rooting for Herzog. I've never been a Bibi Fan. I spotted him as a hypocritical, two faced Poseur years ago, back when he was still one of Ariel Sharon's deputies and Ariel Sharon was doing the same two faced provocative tricky things.

My wife, however, was a Bibi fan, though we had some nice discussions on the subject and we were able to disagree nicely. But I think even she would be angered by what he did this past week, were she still around, because what dominated her life was a sense of fairness and a concomitant commitment to multiculturalism and fairness. She worked with the USA Kulanu groups which sought justice for ancient and excluded minority groups around the world like the Ethiopian Jews, the Lemba, and crypto Jews scattered and oppressed by the Inquisition and both Christian and Muslim repression for centuries. She could see parallels between the Jewish Diaspora, the Irish, Black and yes the Palestinian diaspora. She was even more able to understand the people in the Palestinian diaspora than I was. My wife was for people working together to understand one another. I know she understood what is happening. But I also know she wouldn't have approved.

Injustice and Diaspora

When injustice is done, grudges can last for centuries. There are still people whose ancestors lived in Spain whose descendents have a grudge against Ferdinand and Isabella. It's not that they didn't move on. It's that what occurred was a massive injustice. And injustice is like a psychic wound that never heals until it is either rectified, or time buries it under other injustices. Yesterday's post involved a song that expressed the longing of people who'd lost their homes 500 years ago. To expect people to just "forget" and move on is callous. Adio Kerida [http://holtesthoughts.blogspot.com/2015/03/adio-kerida-goodbye-dear-love.html]

This is true whether one is talking about Slavery, Jewish Diaspora, Armenian Diaspora, or yes, the Palestinian Diaspora. Yes, with opportunity and access to resources people will move on. But that doesn't mitigate the injustice of neighbors and former friends who tried to kill them or said "just go." Israel has a right to exist because Jews have a right to live somewhere where authorities can't tell them to "just pack up and go." Sadly, Bibi has just made that future harder to attain.

Many Jews like my wife understand this because their relatives experienced it in Europe. My late friend Malvina Burstein experienced this twice. Once when the Nazis came. A second time when she tried to return to her home in Slovakia and the family that had occupied it refused her a return to the neighborhood her family had lived in for centuries. My other holocaust survivor friends all experienced the anti-semitism of local people who, even if they didn't approve of Hitler's "final solution" only wished it had been more final.

The conflict between the principles of civitas and tribal identity can only be resolved with a strong legal and social sense of fair play. Our world is suffering with the consequences of many injustices, and if we want this world to be a better place we have to set them right -- and also stop rewarding the unjust authoritarian predators among us. Until we wake up to the injustices of the past and set them right, the wheel of injustice will just keep turning. The aggrieved feel justified in committing their own crimes. As we've seen with Al Qaeda and ISIL, they will do their best to get revenge. We don't need revenge, we need justice.

Ending the Palestinian Diaspora

The Chauvinistic, prejudiced extreme nationalism that is emerging right now is bad for Israel and threatens Israel's future. With the deliberate help of the Arab nations, Israel and the Arabs decided to create a diaspora of the (more or less) indigenous people of Palestine, and to oppress others of them as prisoners in their own enclaves. To expect them to "just move on" without help is callous and barbarous. And the world is moving on to where a country can't get away, long term, with the sorts of things that my Holocaust survivor friends experienced in Europe before migrating to the USA or Israel.

Israel is going to have to change. When they claimed they supported a "two state solution" that reflected their knowledge that eventually they'd have to admit that most of them were the immigrants and that the people already there had a right to be there too.

Bibi disavowing a two state solution means that Israel as a Jewish State is going to have to end. One way or another. It can't keep fencing out families that used to live there while begging Jews from around the world to move in. Israel can't keep doing that forever. Bibi's decision means open Apartheid. It also means that the "West Bank" can no longer be labeled as "occupied territory" and it's people treated as prisoners there under that fiction. They are going to have to be admitted as Citizens of an actual State. Same with Gaza. Fences only last so long. One can never kill everybody. And Apartheid is a waste of time. Sooner or later Israelis are going to have to mend fences with Arab speaking Palestinians, or the country will collapse and all those weapons be scattered among fighting warlords, and maybe even used against Jews. Worse, one mistake and huge swaths of Israel will be unlive-able. Netanyahu may think that Iran with the bomb is bad. But events at Chernobyl and Fukushima have demonstrated that reactor complexes are possible bombs too. Dimona is more dangerous to Israel than her neighbors. Heaven Forbid anything happens there!

Guaranteeing the Collapse of Israel as a Jewish State

A two state solution wasn't going to work anyway, so maybe Bibi is just doing the world a favor. An Israel with it's capital in Jerusalem is Israel. Calling the capital after the Roman name is a continuing affront to historical justice. But now that capital is going to have to admit that the people of the West Bank and Gaza have rights too. Conflict is expensive. Those walls cost money. Wealth going to guns, gunships, helicopters and drones is wealth not spent on food and water. People see what is being done to fellow human beings and they stop trading with, buying from, selling to people. It looks bad. It smells bad. It hurts. Apartheid will collapse the Israeli State before they could ever be defeated by Palestinians or bombed by Iranians. If they started engaging in actual genocide that would just lead to their own genocide. So one way or another Palestinians will have to be accorded the same rights as Jews. And one way or another rule of law will have to replace rule of Jihadi nutcases and angry young men. And for that to happen justice will have to be dispensed. Some Folks will have to be helped "move on" and folks will have to apologize and let other folks move in. But it has to be through a Just practice or the death toll will be unconscionable.

One Voice versus Apartheid

I think the movement "One Voice" and Obama will have the last word. I'm not optimistic anymore, but I am certain that one way or another there will be peace. If It were me, I'd redivide Israel into Cantons subdivided into departments and municipalities and give each considerable self government, but that's just me with my principles of subsidiarity and bottom up legislation and independent courts. Israel needs enforceable constitutional protections for both Jews, Christians and Muslims. And Israel owes people it's hurt some restitution for taking their property and some kind of earned amnesty for the two sides atrocities. The Palestinians haven't been exactly saints either. All that is going to take a younger generation and folks a little more immune to false propaganda. But my Wife's spirit would make the difference. She was proud of her uncle who fought against the Egyptian Army and died defending a Kibbutz in the Negev in '48. But she also was someone who wanted justice for everyone.

The last time we visited Israel we visited the Cemetery next to the Israeli Holocaust Museum. There was a marker for her Uncle. We can have two kinds of peace. One is the Cemetery.

Further Reading:
http://holtesthoughts.blogspot.com/2015/03/what-is-one-voice-who-is-tom-cotton-and.html
One Voice: http://www.onevoicemovement.org/
Miko Peleg:
http://www.gtigazette.com/?p=23604
J Street:
"J Street said that the manner in which the Prime Minister secured his victory – shredding the broad bipartisanship that underpins American political support for Israel and preying on fear and racism at home – demonstrated that he willingly put his own political interests before his concern for Israel’s relationship with the United States and his commitment to Israel’s democratic character. Moving forward, J Street will be unwavering in making the case that Israel’s security and survival as the democratic homeland of the Jewish people require a change in course." http://jstreet.org/blog/post/yesterdays-election-israels-future_1
Marwan Bishara, Moderate Arab reaction:
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/03/israel-chose-palestinians-150318081743116.html
Centrist and Palestinian reaction:
“Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas also took aim at Netanyahu’s pre-election rhetoric, saying the prime minister’s reversal of his previous support for the creation of a Palestinian state was 'very worrisome.'” [http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/centrist-runner-up-says-he-wont-join-new-israeli-coalition/2015/03/19/47cddd8c-ce0d-11e4-8730-4f473416e759_story.html]

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Adio Kerida -- Goodbye Dear Love

My wife loved Ruth Behar. We saw her documentary. But we also had her songs. My wife loved to play our copies of her records, and truth is I love the music too. A trilling, lamentation about home, and lost loves. My wife sponsored and we saw "Adio Kerida" when it came to the Washington Area. But for years, we lived to the lamentation of the Sephardi, who after 5 centuries still lamented the lost of their homes in "Sepharad" -- Golden Age Spain.

The song:

Adio,
Adio Querida,
No quero la vida,
Me l'amagrates tu
 
Refrain Translation:
Goodbye,
goodbye beloved,
I don't want to live
You made my life miserable.

 

Tu madre cuando te pario
Y te quito al mundo
Coracon ella no te dio
Para amar segundo
 
Translation:
When your mother delivered you
and brought you to the world
she did not give you a heart
to love with....
 
Adio,
Adio Querida,
No quero la vida,
Me l'amagrates tu
 
Refrain
Va, busacate otro amor,
Aharva otras puertas,
Aspera otro ardor,
Que para mi sos muert
 
Translation:
I'll go look for another love,
knock on other ports
in hope there is a true hope,
because for me you are dead.

The song has layers, like all good songs from the heart. On the surface level the person is singing about a spurned love, maybe a child who is ungrateful, maybe a lover. On a deeper level the song refers to Spain, which drove Jews out of their country and brought to a close their golden age when they did. Spain discovered Gold, and many "Nuevo Christianos", some of whom were genuine converts, some trying to be both Jewish and Christian, but many of them converting only because the alternative was murder, wound up being the energy behind discoveries such as the great silver mountain of Potosi. Jews would look for far away outposts of the Spanish empire where they could speak Ladino freely and practice freely as long as they were quiet. And the Inquisition would pursue them to the ends of the earth. This song laments the ungratefulness of Christians, who received a lovely set of myths and principles from the Jewish Teachers Jesus and Paul, and turned it into a horror for Jews.

Taken from http://lyricstranslate.com/en/adio-kerida-goodbye-my-beloved.html

Reactions

The Song blares in my mind right now. And I don't even need the translation or to put the CD on play. For some reason even though it's not my wife's voice in the CD, I hear my wife's voice.

Joy and Sadness!
 
Joy and sadness,
Reason and Madness,
Are conjoined in this world of travail
Where we journey from hilltop to hilltop,
through vale after vale.
 
When we think we have arrived,
The host says Goodbye!
When we think we've reached a new height
We find ourselves falling down.
 
We are walking, we hope towards the light
Yet sometimes the light is too bright
It blinds us like the night.
and when we think we are finally arrived
We are done.
 
Christopher H. Holte

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

What is One Voice, Who is Tom Cotton? And what game are they playing?

Tom Cotton, Best Congressmen Money can buy?

When I was writing my post on the Logan Amendment and the 47 Traitors Post last week I came on a number of interesting facts which seemed irrelevant when I wrote the post, so I put the info at the bottom of the post. Later I found out that they were incredibly related to Cottons vote, because:

Updating 3/16/2015. It turns out that Tom Cotton got $960,250 in supportive campaign advertising in the last month of his Senate Campaign (November 2014) (See more at: http://mondoweiss.net/2015/03/israel-fingerprints-republican)

That also meant that the chart I stuck at the bottom of that post belongs right here:

Open Secrets Top 5 Donors 2013-2014 + last Minute
Contributor Total Indivs PACs
Club for Growth $507,174 $507,174 $0
Elliott Management $143,100 $143,100 $0
Stephens Group $105,550 $95,550 $10,000
Senate Conservatives Fund $97,427 $92,427 $5,000
Goldman Sachs $50,549 $40,549 $10,000
Emergency Committee for Israel (ECI)$960,250
When we talk about Elliott Management we are really talking about Paul Singer.
https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.php?cid=N00033363
Mondoweiss: [http://mondoweiss.net/2015/03/israel-fingerprints-republican]

Ironically as with the program that included "Project for a New American Century" and that hinged on agitation for an excuse to invade Iraq, the money boys aren't just funding one side of the equation. These Three American Families Are Funding Half Of Netanyahu’s Re-Election Bid [http://www.buzzfeed.com/sheerafrenkel/meet-the-american-families-bankrolling-netanyahus#.unMr6Jy10W]

“More than 90% of the Israeli prime minister’s campaign money comes from the United States, according to records published by Israel’s State Comptroller Office.” ... “Why get money from Israel when you can get it from the U.S.?” [http://www.buzzfeed.com/sheerafrenkel/meet-the-american-families-bankrolling-netanyahus#.unMr6Jy10W]

Here's the table:

NameAmount per GiftTotal
4 members of the vastly wealthy Falic family$11,500$46,000
Book family of New Jersey$11,000$44,000
Schottenstein family$10,000$40,000

Of course nobody is buying Netanyahu. At least not with election donations. By comparison with a million dollars His whole campaign (estimate $260K) is a drop in the bucket. But when we accuse Israelis of funding our elections. We need to realize we are talking about our own citizens who feel passionately about Israel and want to defend it against enemies, perceived or real. And these are people not much different from Irish who funded both sides of the Northern Ireland conflict, or who funded and fought in the various wars in Europe when countries like Yugoslavia broke up.

So it's not surprising that there are cross ocean ties. What worries me aren't the Falics or Books, but the Kristols and other folks we don't see, whose interest is in defense and arms.

Crazy Congress Versus One Voice.

And of course congress reacts to this obvious influence on Tom Cotton -- by investigating Obama:

"According to the source, the US State Department apparently handed taxpayer-funded grants, worth $350,000, to the OneVoice Movement." [http://rt.com/news/241237-obama-netanyahu-senate-israel/]

Now one voice is a peace movement that involves both Israelis and Palestinians. It has every right to seek grants from the State Department to do whatever the grant asks them to do. So of course this is going to be "GrantGate" or "OneVoiceGate" and maybe One Voice will be the ACORN of 2015. Oye Vey.

Indeed it's not a secret!

"In 2013, the U.S. Government awarded OneVoice Israel (OVI) and OneVoice Palestine (OVP) two parallel grants to launched innovative, multi-platform initiatives to combine our grassroots network with a dynamic media campaign to build public support and accountability for the current negotiations." [http://www.onevoicemovement.org/programs/view/political-outreach]

So there were grants to One Voice. And One Voice is fighting for peace and a two state solution. And Netanyahu has renounced his former commitment to a Two State solution. Oh well.

OneVoice allegedly forwarded the money to its subsidiary in Israel called Victory 15 (V15), which is committed to ousting Netanyahu due to the PM being an obstacle to the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, brokered by the US." [http://rt.com/news/241237-obama-netanyahu-senate-israel/]

Now it's possible that Obama is behind this but more than likely One Voice got it's contract as part of our general peace initiative and not as some sort of subversion of Netanyahu. Considering how blatantly subversive and seditionist the Teabaggers in Congress and the media have been, and how Netanyahu has been in his face in his opposition to any kind of peace with anyone in the middle east, it would serve them right. But Congress is getting it backwards. One Voice is doing the United States Business by enabling peace efforts. Netanyahu was here trying to interfere in US diplomacy.

"OneVoice is an international grassroots movement that amplifies the voice of mainstream Israelis and Palestinians, empowering them to propel their elected representatives toward the two-state solution. The Movement works to forge consensus for conflict resolution and build a human infrastructure capable of mobilizing the people toward a negotiated, comprehensive, and permanent agreement between Israel and Palestine that ends the occupation, ensures security and peace for both sides, and solves all final-status issues in accordance with international law and previous bilateral agreements. The 1967 borders form the basis for the establishment of an independent, viable Palestinian state, with permanent borders and any modifications to be agreed upon by both parties. The Movement recognizes that violence by either side will never be a means to end the conflict." [http://www.onevoicemovement.org/]

Now it wouldn't surprise me if the State department was somehow funding One Voice to go after Netanyahu. But they really don't need to. The funds needed are modest, and they get a lot of donations from around the world. [see http://www.onevoicemovement.org/partners] The State Department grant was seed money 2 years ago.

Personally I think their paranoia is funny but seditious and subversive. And if it is on the money then Obama deserves some respect for a level of strategic thinking I hadn't thought he had.

Sadly Netanyahu is in a deadlock with Herzog. So it's likely he's going to cobble together a hard right coalition. He's likely to bother the United States for a long time. And he'll likely still be bothering the United States when Obama is in his retirement.

Further reading

[http://www.addictinginfo.org/2015/02/16/boehner-confesses-i-invited-netanyahu-secretly-to-stab-president-obama-in-the-back-and-sabotage-peace-talks-video/]

Why these negotiations are important:
http://journal.georgetown.edu/irans-nuclear-negotiations-assessing-the-anomaly-of-success/
Senate Authority
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/mar/11/tom-cotton/letter-iran-47-republican-senators-correct-about-c/
Tom Cotton:
Eli Clifton: http://www.lobelog.com/exclusive-emergency-committee-for-israel-spends-big-on-rep-tom-cotton/
Open Secrets Article on him [https://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.php?cid=N00033363]
http://mondoweiss.net/2015/03/israel-fingerprints-republican
Iraqis intercept supplies headed to ISIL
http://www.wnd.com/2015/03/iraqis-find-saudi-supplies-weapons-destined-for-isis/
http://holtesthoughts.blogspot.com/2015/03/logan-amendment-and-47-traitors.html

Sunday, March 15, 2015

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) and Joining the Nuclear Club

Watching the playground bullies in the Republican party attack our Presidents efforts to negotiate with Iran, just ups the stakes for our world's survival. The war-mongers deliberately distort the issues and the stakes. I think that is because they take the "Mad" part of Nukes more seriously than they understand the insanity of "mutually assured destruction".

Understanding the Insanity of Imperialist efforts at Arms control

In the 30's, the Germans pioneered Nuclear Science. Fortunately for the rest of the world (and unfortunately for the scientists) the leading German Physicists were mostly Jewish or socially liberal enough to be best buddies and friends with Jewish Scientists. This led the Germans to ignore or fail to appreciate the potential power of Nuclear Energy as a weapon. Even so the Germans pioneered refining Uranium, discovered Plutonium, and might have produced a bomb in time to use it against the Brits, French and Russians had it not been for the fact that:

a; the Nazis arrested or exiled most of their leading Physics geniuses. And
b; the remaining German Scientists seem to have either deliberately stalled the program, or took it down a wrong path.

Scientists like Heisenberg could have developed an atomic bomb, despite obstacles such as the destruction of their heavy water stocks and similar. And there was recently an article that claimed that they actually made more progress during the war than we previously thought, digging out research bunkers below a death Camp. This article explores Werner Heisenberg's role in the effort. If he Jewish colleagues hadn't been in exile it might have gone much further with a 5 year head start. Even so Nuclear fission was demonstrated by "the German Chemist Otto Hahn discovered nuclear fission in 1938." [John Amacher Article]

(quoting from this source for convenience): http://www.aip.org/history/heisenberg/p11.htm

After the war we got hold of Heisenberg. During the war the exiled German Scientists went to work for the United States. And some of them went to work for the Russians. We developed functional atom bombs in less than 6 years. Had the Germans not bungled their program they could have won World War II.

Proliferation and Russia

We had competition from Russia. Indeed many American Right wingers openly expressed that they'd have preferred an alliance with Germany and that we'd be fighting the Russians. Patton famously thought we should have been fighting the Russians, and the juggling after the war with Democratic or nationalist politicians exiled or thrown out windows to make room for Hand picked despots. Folks forget it was the Russians, with help from German Communists, who built the Iron curtain. And it was North Korea that tried to forcibly Unify Korea by invading the south, precipitating that hot little war called the "Korean War."

But what scared the pants off of everybody was the Atom bomb. We developed two different Fission bombs; one using a Plutonium core, the other using a U235 core. Soon after the War the Russians tested their own. We developed the even more awesomely horrible Fusion bombs. And for a time our governments sold the notion that the United States could enforce "world peace" with a monopoly of the Atom Bomb. It didn't work that way.

Soon after we did that the Russians had their own. These bombs unhinged the US Right Wing (and unhinged the communist movement too). It's probable that the Russian Scientists developed ABombs with stolen (or shared) scientific information. But it's even more probable that they simply built them on the same science that drove our programs, and that the exchange of information sped up the programs, but the Russians would have built a bomb anyway at some point. However, the USA Right Wing reacted very badly. The same anti-semitism that equated Jews with treachery in Germany, equated Jews with communism in the United States, and equated Physics scientists with espionage. A narrative of betrayal was developed that lasts to this day. And when the Russians, Chinese, Jews and French developed the Atomic Bomb, this fed that suspiciousness and fear. The Russians developed the Atom bomb to intimidate their enemies and deter the USA. The Chinese developed the Atom bomb to deter the Russians and the USA. Over time the Pakistanis, Indian's, and other nations have developed Atom bombs. All out of fear that their enemies would use them to intimidate them.

Attacking Nations that don't have bombs over nations that do have bombs.

The result is that once a country has the Atom bomb, there is little that can be done to stop them. Yes, the South Africans seem to have developed an Atom bomb and to have given it up. That took diplomacy, the end of Apartheid, and the realization that nuclear bombs were a waste of money. We invaded Iraq on the premise that they were about to break out into the Nuclear club, and that proved a lie. At the time we attacked Iraq we were also demonizing Iran and North Korea. We aren't even considering invading North Korea anymore. Because they have atomic bombs, and if we think 9/11 was bad, then imagine what would happen if we used nuclear bombs on North Korea! That is what MAD is all about. It's insane.

There are examples of where negotiations have ended nuclear programs: Libya, South Africa and a few other countries have all given up Arms. We've removed arms from Ukraine and other former Soviet Countries. All these have been relatively peaceful things with relatively good outcomes. Though, perhaps Russia wouldn't be attacking Ukraine if they still had their nukes?

But the Right Wing lets fear blind them to opportunity. And they've been crazy like this since the 40's. If Iran gets the Bomb it will be to prevent us from Invading them, not because they want to blow up Israel. Right Wing Nut Jobs are Nut jobs for a reason.

As long as people around the world are more worried about being attacked by each other than radiation poisoning from their own reactors, they are going to choose "breakout technology" or joining the Nuclear club. Attacking countries for wanting Nukes just reinforces the apprehension of other countries nearby that if ***they don't get the bomb some asshole US General is going to invade their country!*** Would we have let NATO attack Libya if Qaddafi had had Nukes pointed at London and Washington?

Further reading:
http://www.history.ucsb.edu/projects/holocaust/Research/Proseminar/johnamacher.htm
(quoting from this source for convenience): http://www.aip.org/history/heisenberg/p11.htm
Patton on the Russians
http://www.frontpagemag.com/2014/robert-orlando/the-foresight-of-patton/

Saturday, March 14, 2015

Inductive, Deductive Processes Democracy and Good government

Using Process to restore integrity to the system.

There are two main forms of reasoning. Inductive reasoning and deductive reasoning. To use them well they need to be incorporated into processes, formalized into institutions and then employed.

What is a Deductive Reasoning

At the risk of oversimplifying, deductive processes use deductive reasoning:

"Deductive reasoning is a logical process in which a conclusion is based on the concordance of multiple premises that are generally assumed to be true."

What are the risks of Deductive Reasoning?

Deductive reasoning frequently results in formal fallacies (due to misapplication of logic) and in fallacies due to faulty premises. Thus for deductive reasoning to be refined and validated the premises of the deduction have to be tested.

Deductive Process

Thus a Deductive Process needs to things, one is that it's formal logic be defined (and modeled) to identify "formal fallacies" and avoid conclusions that don't follow their premises and faulty premises. Then even if the logic seems to be unassailable the premises still have to be examined. Deductive process works through an iterative process of detailing from abstract theory.

Inductive reasoning and Inductive process

Inductive reasoning:

" Inductive reasoning makes broad generalizations from specific observations."

This article explains it better than most:

"Inductive reasoning works the other way, moving from specific observations to broader generalizations and theories. Informally, we sometimes call this a "bottom up" approach (please note that it's "bottom up" and not "bottoms up" which is the kind of thing the bartender says to customers when he's trying to close for the night!). In inductive reasoning, we begin with specific observations and measures, begin to detect patterns and regularities, formulate some tentative hypotheses that we can explore, and finally end up developing some general conclusions or theories." [http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/dedind.php]

Induction and Deduction must be used together

Some people like to pit inductive reasoning against deductive reasoning as if one method were superior to the other. But both are necessary to process success. And both kinds of reasonings have risks. Abstract theories are generalized from observations, experimentation and sometimes inspiration based on those. There is no deduction without induction. One can come up with faulty theories even if the theory seems to explain the observations. There is no science without verification, validation and refinement processes

Scientists of the Euro-American Gold age got around the dangers of logical trap fallacies by using extensive experimentation and testing to verify, refine and validate hypothesii. As we've moved into a more gilded age, even some of the process improvement people have forgotten about the role of "refining" models. There is a rush to get them to the market as fast as possible, that just doesn't work. Even as hucksters continue to talk about Verification and Validation, while the feedback loop is still drawn, it's not in their minds. In the rush to move science to production the role of experimentation in refining efforts gets forgotten. Experimentation isn't just for verification and validation. It is also for refining the requirements for functionality, and refining one's understanding of what one is looking at. A lot has been dumped in the privateering rush to privatize science and try to make riches. Good process has been one of them. The reason that practical engineers did extensive testing is that science is built on failure. And it's not right to test concepts with train wrecks using live Guinea Pigs. That was a lesson learned through many train wrecks in the early days of train building.

Deductive reasoning has to be tested through inductive processes. And inductive processes are the source for general principles and lessons needed to make progress. The moment a new idea comes along, if the idea contradicts some established theory it tends to get rejected unless there is testing and validation and some "bottom up" means to bring the idea to the attention of the theoreticians.

Governing as the use of Inductive and Deductive processes in Concert.

In requirements we talk about "Bottom up" and "top down." Good requirements has both bottom up inductive processes and top down deductive processes. Requirements have to be fleshed out using engineering principles and iterative experimentation. I want a vehicle for getting from one continent to another. How do I do it? I can do it over the ocean in a boat. But there are constraints on the speed of a boat. The concept may be top down, but now we have a process of discovery. It took 400+ years of failure and experimentation to get boats that could travel at top speeds greater than 10 knots. At 10 knots Europe ruled the world, But ships have never been good at mastering more than 30 knots safely.

But now I want my trip to be fast. For faster speeds you need something that can move over oceans through the air. That is called flying. How do you make something fly? Observation suggested we could do it with wings like birds. It took 1400 years before anyone could figure out how to do that successfully and demonstrate it. It took 50 years before flying was safe. Years of failure and experimentation. My Grandfather perished in 1938 while flying a PB-Y. He was a Pilot, so between the inherent dangers of flying an immature technology and the looming Great War, his odds were 50/50 of making it 5 years after he graduated the Academy. For space shuttle pilots the odds were a little better. That they only had two catastrophic failures showed that they took risk seriously. Risk is part of life. The purpose of science is to use tools that can keep one eye open when humans/sentient beings are walking the cliffs and valleys that make it up.

Process models understand this. They build Deductive process models and Inductive process models, and they use both. These models are useful for trying to understand and predict behaviors. Scientists are trying to use create artificial intelligence using deductive and inductive models. I'd like to see them used for improving the natural intelligence of our governing processes and society. Seeking artificial intelligence is kind of useless unless it is part of improving our own intelligence. Some people are so frustrated with the messy, poor processes they live with they concentrate on building AIs in ivory towers. We fear "Skynet" because we know there is something wrong with our use of intelligence.

We need to use Deductive Processes and Inductive Processes to systematically govern ourselves as societies and a world.

Good Government as acknowledging the value of and employing both Inductive and Deductive Processes.

It hit me a long time ago (before 2010) that the value of Enlightened ideas is is in enlightened processes and enlightened requirements and constraints. If the AI and process people could design an ideal government Democracy probably wouldn't come to mind first, but if they were tasked to apply the principles of Inductive reasoning and deductive reasoning to a business process model for governing a society using these principles -- they'd come up with a Democratic system. This is because top down processes are faulty without verification, validation and refining processes -- Inductive process. And Bottom up processes are faulty without generalization, standardization and requirements. Which are deductive processes.

Democratic representation is (or should be) an inductive process. Local Direct Democracy is in your general assemblies, in accepting feedback from workers. In letting them choose representatives. Workers are your best testers and validators for concept. Oppressive and tyrannical process is also bad and dysfunctional process. Good representation hears all voices because the best way to avoid conflict is to find out what issues are and solve them, rather than exploiting them for pyramid games. The point is that a functional Representative Republic is also good governing process that employs inductive and deductive products to feedback for success.

Boss types want to believe their general theories are valid "a priori" but in real life most governing theory rests on shifting sand. What works strategically at one moment may fail as conditions react to that strategy. Thus good government requires continual feedback, and sometimes a changing of the guard. But for now:

More to come

Further Reading

Article:
I'm not citing the dictionary as I used several and forgot which I quoted from.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1756-8765.2009.01050.x/epdf
Modeling Design Processes: [http://www.aaai.org/ojs/index.php/aimagazine/article/view/855/773]
Inductive Reasoning
http://www.livescience.com/21569-deduction-vs-induction.html
This article is just as fallacious:
http://www.iep.utm.edu/ded-ind/

Deduction and induction were defined thousands of years ago, and they try to invent new definitions and claim the old ones are somehow invalid because they invented new ones. Mathematical induction is the definition of inductive reasoning.

Very Good:
http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/dedind.php

Notes

Process improvement people have been looking at the processes of management for some time. And it hit me during a very boring (because I was being lectured on a subject I'd already studied ad nauseum) training session on process improvement that I hadn't seen much of that applied to governing. So I started looking at the subject, all the while hoping that I'd find some thinker who'd already covered parts of it so I wouldn't have to reinvent the wheel. By looking at the process of government as a system with a series of processes that need to be systematized. One can apply the process improvement ideas of the Golden Age of Euro-American Science to Government. For example, when looking at the Federalist Papers and the Anti-Federalist papers, and other philosophical writings of the 18th century and early 19th century the philosophers and "social-scientists" were grasping at engineering models that would use tools not that different from the process diagrams used to describe requirements, or airplane acquisition, etc... Consequently I've been consciously and subconsciously at work on this since 2010. But the first step was to re-read the writings with that in mind. I found some of the concepts I was looking for in Artificial Intelligence thinking, which is mostly the product of engineers trying to architect the ideas of some brilliant science fiction writers and scientists, so it shouldn't be surprising.

Friday, March 13, 2015

Private Tyranny, Property Rights and Workman's compensation

Before Workman's compensation

[100 yrs article]

The Story

The story I heard a long time ago, is one I'm still in the process of verifying. The story I was told is that my Great Grandfather was an Iron worker. One of the jobs he had, I heard was building an Iron Dome in the Minnesota State Capital. I thought I heard the Iron dome was on the capital, but I looked it but the Minnesota State capital building is made of Marble, so that part of the story I must have heard wrong. Maybe it was a bank or some other building. I need to dig. Or he was doing other work than just Iron work. Or perhaps Iron helped support the Marble. I don't know. But the story I heard, I think from my Grandfather is that after a number of years as a pretty good Iron worker he hurt his back while working. At that point he was fired. His pay was docked for lost time and the cost of the Medical Doctor and he was sent home. He spent the rest of his life barely making a living with a small farm.

The story of Workman's Compensation in brief

He raised my Grandmother under incredibly difficult circumstances. According to the story she would skate to work in the winter and walk three miles to school around a lake the rest of the year. I know this is true. His daughter, my Grandmother, was a tiny, delicate, fearful, yet tough and determined woman, though obviously she'd suffered privation and it had marked her. She became a School teacher and helped my Grandfather get his degree so he could teach high school and coach sports. My Late wife always made me think of her.

Also according to the story my Grandfather was a bit of a socialist/progressive after that, though much of my family tends to be hyper-patriotic and even Right Wing. I do know he was in pain for the rest of his life and eeking out a living running a small farm he bought with his savings. I never met my Great Grandfather La Ducre, and my time with my Grandfather and Grandmother was brief, so my memory could be faulty on this. But the essential story is pretty typical of the days before Workman's compensation, which we only got because of labor agitation for fairness. It was typical for employers to treat workers as a cost and for employers to treat their common employees like dirt. If the story is not true, it is still typical of the days before Workmen's compensation.

Fairness in the United States has two different definitions. For those who have land and capital property it involves an absolute right to use their property as they see fit. That attitude is alive and well, as demonstrated by the recent demonstrations at the Mall of America. The Mall of America corporation regards their malls as private property. Even if they seem like public places, the notion of a "commons" is something they resist. They hired police, FBI and Homeland Security to enforce that notion. It is the same notion that informed the Aristocrats of old. Prior to the passage of workmans compensation laws, employers were the same way. Employees were an expense only. The land they worked on was private property. If they were unfortunate enough to live on the Corporation private property, they had no rights. That is why we developed a Union movement. The notion of "commons" went out the window when we created corporations. The reality that the commons has always applied to property claimed as "private" doesn't occur to modern "economic royalists" (FDR's term) anymore than it applied to the Nobles and Kings who declared they had a divine right of kings to rule arbitrarily and discard the detritus; (old, sick, infirm, hurt). For that reason it took years of agitating to get our Workman's compensation laws.

....And now they are under attack again!

This article explains the Workers Compensation System:

"Today's workers compensation system can trace its original heritage back to a German system put in place in 1881; however, 1911 is recognized as when Wisconsin adopted the first statewide constitutional workers compensation law. It was a simple program that removed worker injuries from the court system, offering both employers and employees more certainty about compensation for lost wages, disabilities and medical care." [https://www.ncci.com/documents/100_yrs_comp.pdf]

The article softpedals the harsh reality of the previous system. Unless the Employer did something egregious and the courts were not corrupt (courts were notoriously biased against workers and for employers), workers not only were unlikely to get any help for being injured at work, they were likely to be sued for the financial damage their injury did to their employer and successfully!

"When it was first introduced a century ago, workers compensation insurance was a relatively radical idea for American workplaces." [100 yrs article]

Radical is code for "No effing way I'm going to compensate my employees for being lazy shiftless morons who get themselves hurt" was a typical (still is) attitude of employers! It took the Union movement and labor agitating to get this done! It was fiendishly difficult to sue an employer. And even if one won the case it was rare that a worker was well compensated!

"As the American economy moved increasingly from agriculture-based to industry-based, it became increasingly necessary to find a comprehensive method for dealing with the costs of on-the-job injuries. States realized that employees could not be expected to have to sue their employers for compensation. And employers needed to have a means for protecting themselves from the unknown costs of such lawsuits." [100 yrs article]

Pirate Model

More importantly workers realized that employers were not going to compensate workers unless a system was demanded that the employers could live with. The system they came up with was modeled on the system worked out by pirates back in the days when privateers and pirates hunted for prizes and fought wars on the open ocean. In those days a no-fault system was setup for compensating injured crew on pirate ships. This no-fault system was eventually adopted by the elitist Navies, but only after labor agitation by sailors. The threat of mutiny eventually worked, but only after generations of sailors were hung.

And it took til 1948 to get Workman's Compensation laws passed in every state!

[http://www.piratesinfo.com/cpi_Injury_Compensation_537.asp]

Sources and Further Reading

https://www.ncci.com/documents/100_yrs_comp.pdf

http://www.piratesinfo.com/cpi_Injury_Compensation_537.asp

Oh Jesus

Mythical, legendary man
Whose sandals still leave footprints in the sand.
that none can perfectly follow;
...or perfectly understand.
 
Oh Jesus;
How the charlatans have played with your story;
turned you into Apollo, son of Zeus, even Ba'al Peor, Shamash
turned you into Logos, God's "spirit",
God's right hand man,
an angel at last.
 
The Charlatans have armed you with an AK 47
Put words in your mouth you never said.
Turned you into a blond, blue eyed, crusading madman
turned your teachings on their head.
Oh barefoot itinerate wandering preacher!
And people who follow those footprints,
the more their feet fit the holes
the more they are hated and vilified
and beaten on their souls
Oh Rebbe Jeshua!
In your name your brothers have been murdered by the millions
Driven from town to town, driven into cattle cars.
In your name they murder your relatives and their sons.
Vilified and demonized, beaten and demeaned.
Even the graves desecrated.
Oh Jesus!
And those who would follow your path;
Walk thinly clothed and barefoot
healing the sick and feeding their brothers and sisters.
Walking with murderers and whores,
Alcoholics and bores.
Bothering good Christians at their front doors
and getting killed by them!
Oh Jesus!
I suspect the Messiah walks among us!
He's: in the nurses at the Hospital,
the Fireman running into the fire,
He's a she, a he-she, a Man, a Woman,
The Messiah awaits the time,
When hypocrisy will no longer be.
Oh Jesus!
If you walk among us this day
There is a burning cross they'd hang you on!
The Reincarnations of Pharisees,
Sit in the front in the most comfortable Pews
Or preach anti-semitism on the pulpit.
Oh Son of David!
The world eternally waits for salvation.
 
Christopher H. Holte, 3/13/2015

Background.

Timeline: The story of Jesus is set approximately AD 32 or so. Paul of Tarsis' time line is circa 5 AD to 67 AD and he dies in Rome while Jews were in the process of doing the revolt they believed the Messiach, who Christians identify with Jesus, was supposed to lead. Paul is semi historical in that his writings survive, heavily edited. Jesus is both mythological and legendary as his stories went through a period of oral transmission, the testaments were also heavily edited (and as we find from Gnostic survivals were culled together theologically from diverse sources). The Jewish Revolt was from 66 AD to 73 AD. Paul's dramatic visit to the Temple where his disciple Timothy was stoned because the Temple Goers were under the impression he was ritually impure and not circumcised marks the break between Paul's line of Christianity and a Jewish line. The Jewish revolt would have welcomed a second coming. In the myth that precedes Jesus the Messiach is supposed to be from the Line of David, is supposed to do miracles, and one of those miracles is to save Israel from the Romans. By taking Christianity to Greek Cities and Romans and freeing Christians from practicing Kosher (the "old law") preachers like Paul were asserting that Christian teachings were a new Law that would be superior and easier to practice than the old one. Thus the fight was between Christians like Peter and Jesus' brother James, who believed that Jesus was for Jews, would be returning to defeat the Romans literally, and those who were grasping for a "new law." But in any Case honest historians and theologians admit that from [http://www.ucg.org/booklet/god-trinity/surprising-origins-trinity-doctrine]

The idea of him being "divine" was acceptable to most Jews. The idea of him being "God" or "a God" was not. A person can be a receptacle (behave so closely to the desired virtue that one's name becomes the word for it) or example of an abstract thing, but not literally that thing. But all this happened over time and not in writing.

"For fifty years after St. Paul's life a curtain hangs over the church, through which we strive vainly to look; and when at last it rises, about 120 A.D. with the writings of the earliest church fathers, we find a church in many aspects very different from that in the days of St. Peter and St. Paul" ( The Story of the Christian Church, 1970, p. 33)."

That intervening time was marked by the first Revolt(66-73 AD), and the Kitos Revolt (115–117), which depopulated Christian as well as Jewish communities. It is a period of oral transmission and of transmissions whose originals have been lost or altered. And so the "earliest Church fathers" rise in a Church that was divorced from it's Jewish origins for the most part. Indeed it was so divorced that folks who took the "Old Testament" seriously were persecuted as "Judaizers." In any case, that persecution also became the process of Christians taking up the anti-Semitic mantle of the Romans and Greeks.

And by the council of Nicea, Jesus had become identified with ancient pagan Gods, the very Greek and pre-Christian idea of God-head, and so notions like that of Arianus were considered heretical (Arianus):

"Arius, a priest from Alexandria, Egypt, taught that Christ, because He was the Son of God, must have had a beginning and therefore was a special creation of God. Further, if Jesus was the Son, the Father of necessity must be older."

Their solution was to identify Jesus with the Logos, or "divine word", the first creation of God, and to turn the whole concept of the Trinity into an esoteric mythical doctrine:

"as Karen Armstrong explains, "the Trinity only made sense as a mystical or spiritual experience . . . It was not a logical or intellectual formulation but an imaginative paradigm that confounded reason. Gregory of Nazianzus made this clear when he explained that contemplation of the Three in One induced a profound and overwhelming emotion that confounded thought and intellectual clarity." [http://www.ucg.org/booklet/god-trinity/surprising-origins-trinity-doctrine/]>

Now mysticism is based on the kind of meditation and illumination that is the origins of religion and really great literature. It usually IS in the form of dream or mythic language. Indeed the "holy spirit" is related to the Jewish concept of the Shekhinah and Kaballist and mystery religion concepts that are as much part of psychic, spiritual and "brain matter" reality, but are not usually logical paradigms. There is a logic, but the logic is more related to the wet hemisphere's inside our heads than the material world around us.

"'No sooner do I conceive of the One than I am illumined by the splendor of the Three; no sooner do I distinguish Three than I am carried back into the One. When I think of any of the Three, I think of him as the whole, and my eyes are filled, and the greater part of what I am thinking escapes me'" (p. 117). Little wonder that, as Armstrong concludes, "For many Western Christians . . . the Trinity is simply baffling" (ibid.)." [http://www.ucg.org/booklet/god-trinity/surprising-origins-trinity-doctrine/]>

Christianity was an uneasy alliance of folks intellectualizing the concept of God, folks using the writings about the subject to guide and teach in parables and analogy, folks wrestling with the concepts to try to make sense of them and come to truths about their own lives and help others in the process, and ecstatic, meditative/contemplative, visionary illuminations. Just as most great religions are, and as the parent religions; paganism and Judaism are also.